Green Hydrogen Roadmap for Nepal

Summary

Strategic roadmap for producing green hydrogen from Nepal's surplus monsoon hydropower via electrolysis. Envisions an entirely new domestic industrial ecosystem absorbing stranded wet-season power.

Key Data Points

• Primary target: domestic green ammonia/fertilizer production (Nepal imports 100% of chemical fertilizers)
• A domestic green fertilizer plant could absorb up to 500 MW of continuous baseload power
• Replacing coal in Nepal's cement clinker production would require 227,743 tonnes of green hydrogen annually, needing 2,002 MW of dedicated hydropower
• Projected viable production cost: $2.15/kg by 2035
• Government adopted Green Hydrogen Policy in 2024 with tax exemptions and regulatory framework
• Commercial pilots targeted for 2025–2027, industrial scale by 2035

Relevance to Project

Central to Green Hydrogen Nepal and the demand-creation argument in Domestic-Led Hydro Strategy. Addresses Stranded Generation by creating domestic demand for surplus monsoon power.

Limitations

• Roadmap, not committed project pipeline. The ammonia, fertilizer, and cement-substitution figures are planning scenarios rather than financed projects.
• Demand-creation assumptions. The roadmap assumes industrial offtake, electrolysis deployment, water availability, and fertilizer-market integration that are not yet demonstrated in Nepal.
• Cost trajectory uncertainty. The projected $2.15/kg production cost by 2035 depends on equipment-cost declines, power-price assumptions, and utilization rates.
• Policy still early-stage. The 2024 Green Hydrogen Policy creates a framework, but pilot delivery, permitting, and industrial procurement models remain unsettled.