CARE Ratings Nepal — Sanima Mai Hydropower Credit Assessments
- Page status
- Working page
- Updated
- 2026-05-12
Summary
CARE Ratings Nepal surveillance reports and rating rationales for Sanima Mai Hydropower Limited, a 22 MW private IPP on the Mai Khola (eastern Nepal). The Sanima Mai generation data provides one of the most complete multi-year time series for tracking Q-design discharge performance against contracted energy.
Key data extracted
Generation vs contracted energy (Q40 design)
| Fiscal Year | Contracted (GWh/yr) | Actual (GWh/yr) | % of Contracted |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2076/77 | 121.7 | 116.8 | 96.0% |
| FY 2077/78 | 121.7 | 107.1 | 88.0% |
| FY 2078/79 | 121.7 | 88.8 | 73.0% |
| FY 2079/80 | 121.7 | 103.4 | 85.0% |
The declining trajectory from 96% to 73%, followed by partial recovery to 85%, exemplifies the hydrological volatility facing Q40-designed RoR plants on monsoon-dominated tributaries. Unlike Chilime's glacially-buffered Q65+ design, Sanima Mai's Q40 parameter produces higher variability and lower average delivery relative to contract.
PPA structure
- Wet season: NPR 4.80/kWh (promotional, escalated to NPR 5.08 after 5 years)
- Dry season: NPR 8.40/kWh (escalated to NPR 8.89)
- 3% annual escalation for 5 years
- PPA year: 2010
Limitations
- Single-project scope: Sanima Mai is one 22 MW RoR IPP on the Mai Khola; its generation and financial patterns are not representative of all RoR projects across Nepal's diverse river basins.
- Data recency: Generation data covers through FY 2079/80 only; more recent fiscal years are not included. The partial recovery to 85% may have continued or reversed.
- Q40 design context: The Q40 exceedance design is less conservative than the Q65+ designs common on glacially-fed rivers; hydrological variability observations apply to Q40-configured projects specifically.
- PPA vintage: The PPA terms described (2010, 3% escalation, NPR 4.80/8.40 wet/dry) are specific to this project's 2010-vintage PPA and do not represent current NEA PPA terms.
- Credit rating source: CARE Ratings surveillance reports prioritize creditworthiness metrics; they may not capture all technical or hydrological operating conditions in detail.