Likhu Cascade Research Compilation

Summary

Comprehensive research compilation covering the 213 MW Likhu hydropower cascade (Likhu-1, Likhu-2, Likhu-4, Likhu Khola A). Compiled from CARE Ratings Nepal issuer ratings, developer disclosures, and NEA transmission data.

Key data extracted

• Likhu-2 stranded generation: 60% PLF in FY 2023/24 caused by NEA New Khimti substation bottleneck (100 MVA transformer), recovered to 91% in FY 2024/25 after 200 MVA transformer upgrade
• Ownership: MV Dugar Group with UAE FDI (Mogha Energy DMCC) — not BPC. BPC subsidiary HCEL provided engineering consultancy only
• Likhu-4 redesign: Originally 120 MW export project, downscaled to 52.4 MW domestic after cross-border transmission wheeling dispute with India
• Financial: Likhu-2 NPR 10,968-11,246 million cost (~NPR 204M/MW), 78:22 D/E, CARE-NP BBB- (Is) March 2026
• Cascade: 213 MW cumulative across 4 plants, all sharing New Khimti evacuation corridor

Limitations

• Research compilation, not peer-reviewed. Assembled from CARE ratings, developer disclosures, and NEA transmission data — has not undergone independent verification or peer review.
• Single-cascade scope. Covers only the Likhu cascade; findings on stranded generation, corridor dependency, and redesign dynamics are not necessarily representative of other Nepal cascades.
• Snapshot date. Ratings and financial data reflect March 2026 CARE-NP assessment; does not capture subsequent operational or financial developments.

See also