Upper Karnali — PDA, Financial Closure & Court Record

Summary

Reference compilation for the 900 MW Upper Karnali Hydroelectric Project — GMR-sponsored, repeatedly PDA-extended, and the canonical example of a stalled India-developed export project in Nepal.

Key Data Points

Project basics

Capacity: 900 MW
Districts: Surkhet, Dailekh, Achham (Karnali Basin)
River: Karnali
Design annual energy: ~3,466 GWh
Sponsor: GMR Upper Karnali Hydropower Limited (subsidiary of India's GMR Group)
Bid won: International Competitive Bidding, 2008
Export orientation: 88% of output planned for international sale

Commercial / PDA history

Original PDA deadline missed repeatedly since 2014
Supreme Court of Nepal limited extensions; allowed a 186-day extension to compensate only for time lost during its own interim orders
Bangladesh Power Development Board signed a PPA with GMR for 500 MW in principle; MOU in April 2017 for 300 MW; PPA planned for July 2017; in September 2021 Nepal proposed only 200 MW to Bangladesh — none of these have closed

Recent financing development (2026)

Government of Nepal cleared a path for financial closure
GMR submitted investment commitments: INR 65 billion from India's IREDA; NPR 20 billion from Nepali banks
Equity restructuring brought in SJVN and IREDA alongside GMR; NEA retains its originally-allocated stake

Relevance to Project

Primary source for Upper Karnali's PDA history, export structure and the 2026 financial-closure path. Important because Upper Karnali is the reference case — alongside Arun 3 — for India-developed Nepalese hydro, but with the opposite construction outcome: Arun-3 is building; Upper Karnali has been paperwork since 2008.

What This Source Does Not Cover

Bangladesh-side transmission readiness (Bangladesh can only import what a new Nepal–India–Bangladesh corridor can carry)
GMR Group's own financial condition and its effect on equity pace
The downstream-irrigation objections that a 2014 high-level committee raised and never fully resolved

Limitations

Paperwork since 2008. Despite repeated PDA extensions and the 2026 financial-closure path announcement, Upper Karnali has zero construction progress after 18 years. The source captures the paper trail, not operational reality.
Financial commitments are announced, not disbursed. The INR 65 billion IREDA and NPR 20 billion Nepali bank commitments are investment proposals, not disbursed funds. Financial closure has been announced before without follow-through.
Bangladesh PPA gap unaddressed. The source documents the history of Bangladesh PPA discussions without resolving whether the transmission corridor and tripartite agreements can actually deliver the promised 500/300/200 MW.