NEA Solar Award Tariffs Undercut the Standard Small-RoR Blended Tariff

Claim

In the cited public records, NEA's 2024 solar LoI award tariffs are below an illustrative standard small run-of-river blended PPA tariff. This is a tariff comparison, not proof that every solar project is cheaper to deliver or more valuable to the system.

Evidence

• The corrected 960 MW award table in NEA Notice of Intent to Award Solar Projects (2024) contains 63 records at 4.99–5.54 NPR/kWh, with a capacity-weighted average of about 5.43 NPR/kWh.
• Standard small RoR hydro PPA economics remain around 8.40 NPR/kWh dry-season and 4.80 NPR/kWh wet-season, or roughly 6.20 NPR/kWh blended before project-specific adjustments.
• Solar's seasonal profile can complement weak dry-season hydro, but daytime solar is not firm evening capacity and award rows do not establish operation.
• Solar and Hydro LCOE documents the arithmetic and its assumptions; Seasonal Arbitrage Trap explains why service timing must remain separate from the headline tariff.

Confidence rationale

Medium-high. The award table and standard tariff schedule support the narrow arithmetic. Confidence is not high because an LoI award is not a final PPA, delivered cost or operating record, and a blended energy tariff does not equal firm system value.

Boundary Conditions

This claim does not say solar replaces storage or peaking hydro, that all award rows will be built, or that the tariff comparison determines the default portfolio choice.

Related

• Solar LCOE Crossover
• Solar and Hydro LCOE
• NEA 960 MW National Solar Tender
• Nepal's Core Hydro Problem Is Timing, Not Annual Volume
• Seasonal Mismatch