Solar and Hydro LCOE
- Page status
- Working page
- Updated
- 2026-05-10
Summary
The numerical table behind Solar LCOE Crossover. Three time series — global solar LCOE, Nepal solar auction tariff, Nepal hydro PPA — plus a value-weighted adjustment.
Global utility-scale solar LCOE (IRENA Renewable Cost Database)
Weighted global average, levelized, 2024 US dollars.
| Year | Global LCOE ($/MWh) | Module price ($/W) | Capacity factor (weighted) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 359 | ~2.00 | 15% | Crystalline Si, pre-scale |
| 2012 | 240 | 1.20 | 16% | |
| 2014 | 165 | 0.76 | 17% | First Chinese scale |
| 2016 | 110 | 0.55 | 17% | |
| 2018 | 84 | 0.37 | 18% | Auction-discovery era |
| 2020 | 59 | 0.22 | 18% | COVID module glut |
| 2022 | 49 | 0.25 | 19% | Tracker + bifacial standard |
| 2024 | ~44 | ~0.10 | 19–20% | Record-low GCC & India auctions |
| 2025 (est.) | ~40 | ~0.09 | 20% | Continuing oversupply |
| 2030 (projected) | ~30–35 | ~0.08 | 20–21% | IRENA midpoint scenario |
Module price decline 2010 → 2024: −95%. System LCOE decline 2010 → 2024: −88%.
Nepal utility-scale solar auction tariffs
| Auction round | Year | MW awarded | Tariff band (NPR/kWh) | USD equivalent (at period FX) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First utility round | 2016–17 | 24 | 7.30–8.40 | $0.065–0.075 | 5 developers; 3 × COD 2019–20 (Butwal, Mithila, Bishnu Priya, etc.) |
| NEA Grid Solar & EE Project EPC | 2019–20 | 25 | NEA self-build (capex-based) | — | Bidur / Trishuli 25 MWp |
| IPP rounds FY 2080/81 | 2023 | 45 | 6.40–6.50 | $0.048–$0.049 | — |
| IPP rounds FY 2081/82 | 2024 | ~170 (8 plants) | 5.94–6.50 | $0.044–$0.049 | PPA signed, COD 2026–27 |
| 960 MW national tender | 2024–25 | 960 (63 projects) | 4.99–5.54 | $0.037–$0.041 | LoI awards; multi-year staged PPA |
Nepal's price discovery is following the global auction curve with a ~3–5 year lag; the 960 MW tender tariff is roughly comparable to India 2024 low bids after currency conversion, while still above the lowest Gulf-region 2024 outcomes.
Nepal hydropower PPA tariffs
NEA-standard PPA structure for IPPs (all figures NPR/kWh; effective since 2016 structure, with periodic revisions):
| Project class | Dry-season (Dec–May) | Wet-season (Jun–Nov) | Blended | Escalation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small RoR (≤ 25 MW) | 8.40 | 4.80 | ~6.20 | 3%/yr for first 8 yrs |
| Small RoR (>25 MW to 100 MW) | ~7.90–8.10 | 4.55–4.75 | ~5.90–6.05 | Case-by-case |
| PRoR (peaking run-of-river) | 9.30 | 5.15 | ~6.80 | 3%/yr |
| Large hydro (cost-plus) | 7.50–9.50 | 4.25–5.40 | ~5.80–7.20 | Case-by-case |
| Reservoir storage (new) | 9.50–12.00 | 5.50–7.00 | 7.50–9.50 | Case-by-case |
| Arun-3 / Upper Karnali (export) | export-priced, ~USD 0.043–0.055 | same | same | in USD terms |
The crossover table
| Technology × year | LCOE / PPA (NPR/kWh) | USD equivalent | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Small RoR hydro PPA (blended, current) | 6.20 | $0.047 | Time-un-weighted |
| PRoR hydro PPA (blended, current) | 6.80 | $0.052 | |
| Solar 2024/25 NEA tender (blended) | ~5.43 | $0.040 | 960 MW batch capacity-weighted avg |
| Solar 2018 NEA auction (blended) | 7.80 | $0.070 | First round |
| Solar 2030 projected (Nepal) | ~4.50–5.20 | $0.034–$0.039 | With 4h BESS: ~6.50–7.50 |
| Global solar LCOE 2024 | 3.8 (NPR eq) | $0.044 | IRENA weighted |
| Gulf 2024 record-low | 2.6 | $0.020 | AEDNRM, UAE |
The Nepal hydro-solar crossover happened between the 2018 (7.80) and 2023 (6.40) solar auction rounds. By 2024, solar is roughly 12% cheaper than small RoR on a blended tariff basis and more than 20% cheaper on a time-weighted-value basis (see next section).
Time-weighted value adjustment
A kWh does not have a single price. Dry-season kWh value in the Indian cross-border market is ~2× a monsoon kWh (Seasonal Arbitrage Trap). Adjusted for when each technology delivers:
| Technology | Annual kWh | % in dry-season (Dec–May) | % in wet-season (Jun–Nov) | Value-weighted price ($/MWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small RoR hydro | 1,000 | ~30% | ~70% | ~51 |
| Solar (Terai) | 1,000 | ~55% | ~45% | ~40 |
| Storage hydro (Kulekhani-style) | 1,000 | ~60% | ~40% | ~68 |
| Coal import (proxy benchmark) | 1,000 | 100% dispatchable | — | ~85 |
Solar's ~55% dry-season share (resulting from clear-sky season + low monsoon penalty in Terai) pushes its value-weighted price ~20% below its nominal tariff; RoR's ~30% dry-season share pushes its value-weighted price ~20% above. The two effects compound: value-weighted, solar is ~22% cheaper than RoR, not 4%.
This is the single most important economic re-framing for the NEA Solar Award Tariffs Undercut the Standard Small-RoR Blended Tariff claim.
Solar + BESS crossover trajectory
Utility-scale 4-hour battery system LCOE (Wood Mackenzie / BloombergNEF data):
| Year | BESS LCOE ($/MWh, 4h) | Combined solar+4h-BESS ($/MWh) | Matches reservoir-hydro at (NPR/kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 190 | 240 | — (out of range) |
| 2022 | 140 | 185 | — |
| 2024 | 95 | 135–150 | — |
| 2026 (proj.) | 75 | 115 | ~NPR 15 (not yet) |
| 2028 (proj.) | 55 | 95 | ~NPR 12 (matches high-end storage hydro) |
| 2030 (proj.) | 40 | ~80 | ~NPR 10 (matches mid-range storage hydro) |
Solar + 4h-BESS reaches NPR 10/kWh equivalence with new reservoir-hydro around 2030, at current price-decline trajectories. This is the point at which the firm capacity argument for new large reservoir hydro (vs solar + BESS) becomes unclear on pure economics.
Chart specifications
Three public-facing chart options:
- Time-series line chart — global solar LCOE 2010–2030 (solid), Nepal solar auction tariffs 2017–2025 (dashed with points), Nepal small-RoR PPA (horizontal band). Crossover point annotated.
- Stacked-bar per-technology — current LCOE bars for RoR, PRoR, new storage hydro, solar (auction), solar (LCOE), solar+4h BESS. With time-weighted-value adjustment as a second panel.
- Projection fan — solar LCOE + solar+BESS 2025–2035, with hydro-storage benchmark horizontal. The crossover year for firm-capacity equivalence is the climax.
Coverage / Method
- Global solar LCOE: IRENA Renewable Cost Database, capacity-weighted global averages. Nepal-specific numbers should be adjusted for grid costs, land costs, and FX.
- Nepal solar auction tariffs: NEA tender results, IPP PPA signings. Figures are nominal NPR with period FX approximations for USD equivalents.
- Nepal hydro PPA tariffs: NEA standard PPA structure (2016 basis, with periodic revisions). Blended rates are calculated at 30% dry / 70% wet energy mix for small RoR; actual project mix varies.
- BESS LCOE: Wood Mackenzie / BloombergNEF utility-scale 4-hour system projections. Assumes lithium-ion, no rare-material price shock.
- Time-weighted adjustment: Based on seasonal generation profiles from Solar–Hydro Complementarity Profile and cross-border price differentials from Electricity Trade Time Series.
Caveats and data hygiene
- Nepal tariffs are NPR-denominated and escalate 3%/yr for first 8 yrs in standard PPA; USD conversions use period FX and are approximate.
- Gulf-region solar auction lows ($20–25/MWh) reflect different capital costs, grid conditions, land prices, and tax structures — they are not directly apples-to-apples with Nepal.
- Reservoir-hydro LCOE has wide error bars because sediment / GLOF / cost-overrun risk is case-by-case.
- Solar + BESS capacity-credit comparison assumes 4 hours of storage; longer-duration storage (8h+) is not yet cost-competitive.
- PR (performance ratio) assumed 17–19% for fixed-tilt Terai; could rise to 20–21% with tracker + bifacial.
Related
- Solar LCOE Crossover — the concept page
- NEA Solar Award Tariffs Undercut the Standard Small-RoR Blended Tariff — the tracked claim
- Seasonal Arbitrage Trap — the time-weighted valuation frame
- Solar Fleet Inventory — the MW this pricing is being applied to
- Solar–Hydro Complementarity Profile — the profile that drives the time-weighting
- IRENA Renewable Readiness Assessment and REmap Nepal — IRENA's Nepal-specific cost assessment