Layer: Future Regulation Scenario

Explorer label: Flow regulation
Layer group: Hydropower layers
Feature count: 11

Storage-first scenario markers showing which projects could alter river timing, dry-season support, downstream sensitivity, and cooperation risk.

Summary

This layer is a scenario view of storage or storage-like projects that could affect river timing, dry-season support, downstream sensitivity, and cooperation context. It translates the storage shortlist into map fields for the geopolitics preset.

What It Represents

This layer reframes the Layer: Storage Shortlist for the geopolitics preset. The question is not only how many MW each project adds. The question is whether a project can change the timing of water and electricity enough to matter downstream.

The layer includes mapped storage or storage-like candidates from the existing shortlist:

Scenario role	Meaning
`operating_baseline`	Existing storage that anchors the present system.
`near_term_storage`	Storage under construction or close enough to matter for near-term planning.
`advanced_planned_storage`	Planned storage with strong Nepal-side documentation and quantified dry-season value.
`promising_storage_candidate`	JICA/NEA promising-storage candidates with dry-energy or storage figures.

How To Read It

Use this layer with Nepal-origin downstream systems, basin polygons, downstream impact markers, and origin/control callouts. A marker should answer five questions:

Field	How To Use It
Timing (`scenario_horizon`)	Separates Already operating, Under construction, Planned, and Long-term candidate projects.
Flow impact (`regulation_potential`)	Indicates whether the project has baseline (no storage), low, medium, high, or very-high timing-regulation signal.
`downstream_name`	Names the downstream river system affected by the basin.
Downstream risk (`downstream_sensitivity`)	Flags whether the linked basin is geopolitically sensitive downstream.
Cooperation needed (`cooperation_potential`)	Identifies where regulation could create cooperative surplus rather than only unilateral leverage.

The deterministic regulation classes are based on dry-season energy, total storage, and effective storage where available. They are scenario labels, not hydrodynamic model results.

Coverage / Method

The layer covers 11 scenario marker features derived from Layer: Storage Shortlist, storage_shortlist_annotations.geojson, and nepal_storage_dry_energy_shortlist.csv. Scenario fields classify timing, regulation potential, downstream river system, downstream sensitivity, and cooperation context from available storage, dry-energy, and status fields.

Caveats

This is a strategic interpretation layer. It does not model reservoir operations, treaty entitlements, flood-routing hydraulics, sediment trapping, irrigation withdrawals, or environmental-flow compliance.

Several projects are planning candidates rather than committed assets. Location precision varies by marker; use the Location source (location_basis) and confidence fields before treating a point as a site-grade location.

Storage Capacity Comparison includes Chera-1 in the tabular research workspace, but Chera-1 is not exposed here because it does not currently have a reliable map anchor.

Linked Data

future_regulation_scenario.geojson - generated scenario layer.
storage_shortlist_annotations.geojson - source annotation layer.
nepal_storage_dry_energy_shortlist.csv - storage and dry-energy source table.