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IRENA Renewable Readiness Assessment and REmap Nepal

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Working page
Updated
2026-05-10

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Summary

Primary international source for solar and renewable cost benchmarking against Nepal specifics. Two IRENA document streams are relevant:

  1. IRENA Renewable Readiness Assessment (RRA) — Nepal (2017, with subsequent updates). Country-level diagnostic; identifies barriers and potential across solar, wind, and small hydro.
  2. IRENA REmap Nepal scenario analysis. Quantitative pathway modelling for higher renewables shares in Nepal's electricity and total energy mix.

Plus the IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics (annual, global) and Renewable Cost Database — which provide the global LCOE benchmarks this project uses in Solar and Hydro LCOE and Solar LCOE Crossover.

What these sources cover

  • Solar PV technical potential by Nepal resource zone
  • Wind potential (limited but non-trivial in Mustang + parts of Koshi)
  • Small hydro potential (overlaps with WECS Assessment of Hydropower Potential of Nepal (2019))
  • Barriers analysis: financing, policy, grid integration, skills
  • LCOE benchmarks for Nepal-comparable countries
  • Scenario pathways to 2030 / 2050 with renewables share
  • Policy recommendations and institutional framework proposals

Key data points (composite from RRA + REmap + Cost Database)

Solar (Nepal-specific)

  • Estimated solar PV technical potential: ~50,000–100,000 MWp (various IRENA framings; caveats on siteability)
  • Mean Nepal GHI: ~4.7–4.9 kWh/m²/day (matches Global Solar Atlas)
  • Suggested short-term target: >1 GW by 2030 (REmap Accelerated Case); policy + financing gaps identified as primary blocker, not resource

Global LCOE benchmarks (IRENA Renewable Cost Database)

  • Utility-scale solar PV weighted global LCOE 2010 → 2024: $0.359 → $0.044 per kWh (−88% real)
  • Module price 2010 → 2024: $2.00/W → ~$0.10/W (−95%)
  • Onshore wind LCOE 2010 → 2024: $0.113 → $0.033 per kWh
  • BESS (4h utility) LCOE 2020 → 2024: ~$190 → ~$95 per MWh
  • Capacity-weighted auction-low solar tariff 2024: ~$0.020–$0.030/kWh (GCC, India)

These are the numbers the Solar LCOE Crossover argument rides on.

IRENA's diagnostic frame for Nepal

The RRA identifies five priority barriers:

  1. Policy coherence — fragmented responsibility across MoEWRI / NEA / AEPC / ERC
  2. Financing access — limited local-currency long-tenor finance for renewables
  3. Grid integration — transmission and distribution readiness for variable resources
  4. Institutional capacity — solar-specific engineering and O&M depth is thin
  5. Land and permits — no agrivoltaic framework, fragmented land tenure

Most of these overlap with the Bottleneck Hierarchy for hydro, with one addition specific to solar: absence of land/permitting framework for utility-scale ground-mount.

Relevance

  • Provides the global LCOE benchmarks the Solar LCOE Crossover and Solar and Hydro LCOE pages rely on.
  • Gives an externally-credentialed estimate of Nepal solar potential without the over-promise of some national documents.
  • Frames the barriers analysis in language compatible with donor programs.
  • The REmap pathway is a normative scenario against which the NEA/MoEWRI 2024/25 actual trajectory (960 MW tender + 170 MW PPA + 142 MW operating) can be compared. For the interpretive use of this benchmark in portfolio planning, see Solar's Role in the Winter Deficit.

Limitations

  • IRENA's Nepal "technical potential" estimates vary widely (50,000–100,000+ MWp) depending on whether high-mountain inaccessible land is counted. Only the Zone A trans-Himalayan + Zone B Terai + Zone C mid-hill deployable fraction (~15,000–25,000 MWp) matters for real planning; see Solar Fleet Inventory potential pyramid.
  • IRENA REmap pathways are normative scenarios, not forecasts. Use for direction of travel, not for calendar-year predictions.
  • Global LCOE benchmarks reflect weighted averages; Nepal-specific numbers should always be context-adjusted for grid costs, land costs, and FX.

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