State of Nepal's Electricity System
A neutral, dated account of Nepal's electricity system—capacity, demand, trade, reliability and the evidence gaps that limit stronger conclusions.
- Page status
- Verified core
- Updated
- 2026-11-04
- Last reviewed
- 2026-11-04
- Review due
- 2027-02-04
This page is the factual landing point for this wiki. It separates the latest consolidated operating snapshot in the public corpus from policy targets and from TransparentGov's editorial interpretation.
Current snapshot
| Indicator | FY 2025/26 | FY 2024/25 | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|
| Installed generation | 4,120.252 MW | 3,591.262 MW | FY 2025/26: 3,905.902 MW hydro, 154.940 MW solar, 53.410 MW thermal, 6 MW bagasse |
| System peak | 3,226 MW | 2,901 MW | 6 July 2026; includes domestic demand and exports at the recorded peak |
| National peak | 2,479 MW | 2,409 MW | 28 June 2026; domestic system scope |
| Energy available | 18,624 GWh | 15,641 GWh | NEA and subsidiaries 36%, IPPs 58%, imports 6% in FY 2025/26 |
| Imports / exports | 1,171 / 3,965 GWh | 1,681 / 2,380 GWh | Managing director's summary; the monthly energy-balance table gives 1,155 / 3,938 GWh |
| Net export | 2,794 GWh | 699 GWh | Exports minus imports, summary scope |
| Total system loss | 12.16% | 12.26% | NEA system accounting |
| National grid coverage | 97.6% | 97.6% | Reach, not service-quality evidence; 18 local levels unconnected |
| Domestic consumption | 12,376 GWh | 11,288 GWh sold | FY 2025/26 includes NEA's own use; FY 2024/25 is distribution sales, so the two are not strictly comparable |
| Per-capita electricity use | 496 kWh | 465 kWh | NEA |
Sources: NEA Annual Report FY 2025/26 (PDF pp.11–14, 176, 185) and NEA Annual Report FY 2024/25.
What changed
Nepal has moved from chronic scheduled load shedding to a larger, IPP-heavy generation fleet and annual net electricity exports. That transition is material: FY 2025/26 net exports of 2,794 GWh were four times the previous year's. The seasonal pattern did not disappear. In Falgun 2082 (February–March 2026), domestic generation was 801 GWh against national demand of 1,067 GWh; Nepal imported 273 GWh and exported 13 GWh. It does not mean that every hour or location has abundant, reliable electricity. Hydropower output remains seasonal; dry-season imports persist; transmission projects can lag generation; and a World Bank memorandum reports that 76% of surveyed firms experienced regular outages in 2022.
The World Bank records that more than 70% of generation capacity added since 2018 came from independent power producers, which held 64% of installed hydropower capacity by the end of 2024. Those figures describe ownership and fleet growth at that cutoff; they do not establish plant availability, dispatch priority or financial health. See World Bank Nepal Country Economic Memorandum (2025).
The physical system
Hydropower accounts for about 95% of installed capacity in the FY 2025/26 NEA snapshot. Because most hydro capacity is run-of-river or peaking run-of-river, river flow strongly shapes output. Seasonal Mismatch explains why wet-season surplus and dry-season weakness can coexist. Storage and System Flexibility covers the limited tools available to shift energy across seasons and hours.
Delivery, trade and end use
Electricity must move through internal transmission, distribution and cross-border interfaces before capacity becomes useful service or export revenue. The evidence shows material delivery constraints, but the public corpus does not contain plant-level dispatch and curtailment records needed to calculate a current national curtailment total. See Transmission and Cross-Border Electricity Trade and Distribution and Reliability.
Domestic customers account for most connections, while industry accounts for a much larger share of sales than its customer count. Grid reach is high, but use per person remains low and electric cooking remains limited. See Demand and Electrification.
Official direction is not current performance
Nepal's NDC 3.0 targets 14,031 MW of renewable electricity capacity by 2030 and 28,500 MW by 2035, alongside lower losses and expanded electric cooking. These are official policy targets, not verified delivery forecasts. Their implementation depends on finance, permits, transmission, demand, environmental and social safeguards, and project execution.
Evidence trail
| System question | Evidence used here | What it establishes | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| What was installed and supplied? | NEA Annual Report FY 2025/26 | FY 2025/26 capacity, energy available, peaks, consumption, losses, grid coverage, annual trade and the monthly energy balance | Utility reporting through mid-July 2026; no plant-level dispatch or curtailment series |
| How did it compare a year earlier? | NEA Annual Report FY 2024/25 | FY 2024/25 baseline for the comparison column | Through mid-July 2025 |
| How did the fleet and trade structure change? | World Bank Nepal Country Economic Memorandum (2025) | End-2024 ownership mix, trade history and 2022 enterprise-outage evidence | Different dates and accounting frames from the NEA fiscal-year snapshot |
| What is government aiming for? | Nepal Nationally Determined Contribution 3.0 (2025) | Official 2030 and 2035 capacity, loss and electrification targets | A policy submission, not an implementation or financing dashboard |
The dates and scopes in this table are part of the claim. A later target does not update an earlier operating observation, and an annual total does not establish hourly reliability.
What is not yet measurable
- A reconciled public plant-level series for availability, dispatch, outages and curtailment.
- National and feeder-level SAIDI/SAIFI, voltage quality and restoration performance.
- A current lifecycle-verified solar pipeline beyond operating-registry and award records.
- Public hourly load, reserve, ancillary-service and storage state-of-charge data.
- Fully reconciled progress evidence for several flagship projects and corridors.
These are maintained as evidence gaps in Unresolved Questions, not silently replaced with estimates.
From facts to interpretation
Master Thesis is the explicitly editorial synthesis. It argues for a way of interpreting the system; it should be read after this page, not mistaken for a neutral status report.
Related
Nepal's Hydropower System · Solar in Nepal's Electricity System · Institutions, Finance and Project Delivery · Environmental and Social Impacts · Climate Resilience and Decarbonization