Unresolved Questions
A current register of evidence gaps, data conflicts and monitoring priorities that materially limit claims about Nepal's electricity system.
- Page status
- Verified core
- Updated
- 2026-11-04
- Last reviewed
- 2026-11-04
- Review due
- 2027-02-04
Areas where public evidence remains thin, source definitions conflict, or more granular data would materially improve the hub. Project-specific active blockers are now also maintained in the monitoring registry.
Research Gaps
| # | Gap | Why It Matters | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DHM long time-series discharge data by tributary | Validate basin-level flow claims at project resolution | OPEN — likely locked behind institutional access |
| 2 | Monthly import-export time series | Strengthen Seasonal Arbitrage Trap argument beyond annual aggregates | FILLED — month-by-month GWh table for FY 2079/80 (~2022/23), combined with FY 2025/26 NPR monthly revenue data. See Electricity Trade Time Series |
| 3 | Plant-level curtailment and outage data | Quantify Stranded Generation precisely | OPEN — public transmission reports provide daily aggregates, while the Generation Directorate operational-report page is not yet populated; plant availability, dispatch events and reason codes remain unavailable. See NEA Operational-Reporting Portals (2026) |
| 4 | NEA financial health | Audited accounts, debt burden, PPA liability exposure | FILLED — FY 2024/25 financials and May 2025 white paper data in Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) |
| 5 | Project-level sediment and geology assessments | Move Sediment as Design Constraint from general to specific | OPEN — requires individual project EIAs and current safeguard instruments |
| 6 | Demand-side load shape (hourly/daily) | Critical for system design and Firm Power analysis | PARTIALLY FILLED — evening peak timing (18:30-19:25), peak import-at-peak magnitude (643 MW in Falgun 2080), and monthly import totals are documented. Full hourly load curve is not public. See Domestic Electricity Demand Distribution |
| 7 | Post-2024 Bangladesh trade route status | Scale-up trajectory for buyer diversification | FILLED — full page at Nepal–Bangladesh Electricity Trade Route |
| 8 | Chinese-linked project status | Earlier public summaries left uncertainty unresolved | FILLED — West Seti (CTG withdrew 2018, NHPC now), Budhigandaki (Gezhouba blocked, domestic). See West Seti Hydroelectric Project, Budhigandaki Hydroelectric Project |
| 9 | Environmental/social impact data on storage candidates | Displacement, ecological, downstream effects of Budhigandaki Hydroelectric Project, Dudhkoshi Storage Hydroelectric Project | PARTIALLY FILLED — Budhigandaki resettlement (8,117 households, NPR 42.65B compensation) now documented |
| 10 | Comparison with other mountain hydro systems | Norway, Switzerland, Bhutan Hydropower Model, Laos with actual data | FILLED — Mountain Hydro System Comparison created with IHA/StatRanker/Oxford data |
| 11 | Representative RoR/PRoR/reservoir development cohort | Test the multi-factor explanation for Operating Fleet Is Overwhelmingly RoR/PRoR, Not True Storage without assigning one PPA, policy, incentive, institution, or actor as the cause | OPEN — compare development time, capital, PPA form, risk allocation, approvals, land, safeguards, transmission, public support, and completion outcomes under a declared sampling rule |
| 12 | Implementation of the reservoir PPA directive | Distinguish an approved framework from actual procurement, finance, construction, and dependable service | OPEN — official text is verified at ERC Reservoir-Based Generating Station Electricity Purchase and Sale Directive 2082; project-level ERC applications, decisions, signed PPAs, financing close, and service obligations remain to be tracked |
Data Conflicts Needing Resolution
| Data Point | Conflict | Recommended Handling |
|---|---|---|
| Installed capacity | NEA annual report, DoED registry, and hydro-only totals answer different questions | Use 3,591.262 MW total / 3,389.912 MW hydro for NEA FY 2024/25, and 3,791.874 MW for the DoED Apr 10, 2026 >1 MW registry |
| Hydro MW | Hydro-only totals can be confused with total installed capacity | Use 3,389.912 MW in data pages that mean hydro-only FY 2024/25 |
| Trade totals FY 2024/25 | NEA narrative, monthly balance, and trade chart totals differ | Keep all three NEA views with labels: narrative 1,681 / 2,380, monthly table 1,712 / 2,380, trade chart 1,711.5272 / 2,331.7360 |
| Potential (gross) | Legacy 83,000 MW slogan vs WECS 2019 reassessment | Keep both: 83k legacy slogan + 72,544 MW WECS 2019 gross reassessment |
| Potential (techno-economic) | Different filters produce different ranges | Use 32,680 MW from WECS 2019 where the exact reassessment is needed |
| Current storage (MCM) | Active and gross reservoir volume are mixed in public summaries | Keep both: 85 MCM active / 130-150 MCM total |
| Cross-border capacity | Rounded older values compete with project-specific approvals | Use 1,141 MW approved, with older ~1,000 MW references retained only as rounded framing |
| System losses | Source year and accounting frame differ | Use 12.26% total system loss for NEA FY 2024/25; older ~12.7% references belong to the prior report framing |
| Basin discharge baselines | Gauge points and basin-border models are not interchangeable | Always label measurement point: gauge (e.g. Chatara/Chisapani) vs WECS border model |
| Electricity access | Consumer-category shares and access/service indicators are easily conflated | Use 97.6% national grid coverage for NEA FY 2024/25; do not treat the domestic-consumer share as household electrification |
| Fleet split | World Bank and ERC/ECA descriptions, older detailed splits, and the current DoED register use different dates and taxonomies | Use predominantly RoR/PRoR for the structural statement; use 106 MW / 2.71% only for the Kulekhani seasonal-service cascade against the June 2026 DoED register; do not classify the 97.29% complement by subtraction |
| Reservoir PPA framework | The 2025 ERC/ECA paper is a proposal, while the 2082 directive is approved official text | Cite ERC/ECA Discussion Paper on Storage Hydro PPA Pricing (2025) for discussion-paper findings and ERC Reservoir-Based Generating Station Electricity Purchase and Sale Directive 2082 for regulatory status; do not treat proposals as adopted terms or issuance as delivered capacity |
| Per-capita electricity | Different source years create a range | Use 370-465 kWh as a range unless a specific source year is named |
Claims Still Needing Verification
| Claim Area | What's Needed | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 400/220 kV corridor status | Current status of internal transmission buildout | PARTIALLY FILLED — corridor evidence exists, but current Hetauda–Dhalkebar completion, energisation, remaining works and transfer capacity are unverified. See Transmission and Delivery Are Material Immediate Monetization Constraints and Hetauda–Dhalkebar–Inaruwa 400 kV Backbone |
| Plant-wise export approvals | Sharpen firm-vs-surplus export argument | PARTIALLY FILLED — 941 MW approved from 28 projects; India CEA data confirms project-level approvals |
| Realized export prices | Firm up Seasonal Arbitrage Trap economics | FILLED — NPR 7.11/unit export avg, 6.40 US cents Bangladesh, in Electricity Trade Time Series |
| Pancheshwar status | Refine Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project treatment | PARTIALLY FILLED — current official records support the 6,720 MW scheme basis, but an agreed final DPR, detailed benefit allocation and current joint minutes remain open. See Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project |
| China-linked projects | Keep Hydro-Geopolitics accurate | FILLED — CTG withdrew West Seti 2018, Gezhouba blocked from Budhigandaki; updated in Hydro-Geopolitics, West Seti Hydroelectric Project, Budhigandaki Hydroelectric Project |
| Causes of RoR/PRoR dominance | Quantify the contribution of contract, capital, approval, project-scale, safeguard, transmission, market, and state-capacity factors across periods | OPEN — current evidence supports a source-bounded multi-factor account but not a single-cause claim |
| Kulekhani output drop | Explain why the only seasonal-storage cascade generated 92 GWh in FY 2025/26 against about 280 GWh in FY 2024/25 (NEA energy balances); determine whether automation works, outages, low inflow or operating policy caused it | OPEN — the FY 2025/26 report notes Kulekhani I/II automation in final testing but gives no cause |
Current Monitoring Priorities
| Area | Evidence needed | Current handling |
|---|---|---|
| Upper Tamakoshi | Current Rolwaling package progress, stop/restart evidence and commissioning schedule | PARTIALLY FILLED — April–May 2026 filings have been ingested and financial lines reconciled; they do not establish current package percentage, a stop/restart date or commissioning schedule |
| Budhigandaki Hydroelectric Project | Approved DPR/salient features, financing, compensation and resettlement disclosures | OPEN — current procurement notices do not establish construction readiness |
| Upper Karnali | Executed financial close, bankable offtake and current PDA/court milestone | OPEN — proposed partner structure is not financial close |
| Dudhkoshi Storage Hydroelectric Project | Financing approval and current safeguard instruments, including GLOF design basis | OPEN — proposed financing and early design material do not establish implementation |
| Arun 3 and Gorakhpur–New Butwal 400 kV Cross-Border Interconnection | Dated, component-level generation, evacuation-line and cross-border commissioning progress | OPEN — overall target dates are not sufficient evidence of synchronized delivery |
| IPO Hydropower Bailout | Issuer-by-issuer prospectus extraction, offer completion and post-offer use of proceeds | OPEN — SEBON records now identify a primary-document trail, but no audited sector-wide inventory yet |
Related
- Evidence Review Notes — methodology and evidence review notes
- Master Thesis — the argument these gaps could strengthen or challenge
- Data Pipeline Readme — copied scripts and dataset pipeline inventory