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MoEWRI IPSDP Executive Summary

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Updated
2026-05-11

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Summary

This executive summary is the clearest compact statement of the current MoEWRI/JICA planning logic for Nepal's long-horizon power buildout through 2040. It ties together demand growth, hydropower sequencing, 400 kV backbone and interconnection expansion, export strategy, and financing needs in one document instead of scattering them across older Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) or donor studies. The report is especially valuable because page 39 turns the plan into a milestone ladder with explicit dates for export crossover, self-sufficiency, the 28 GW government target, and a later clean-export role in South Asia. Section 2.4 then links those milestones to concrete trade channels, grid buildout, and wholesale arrangements with India and Bangladesh rather than treating exports as an abstract objective. Section 3 adds the guardrails the plan says must shape buildability, including environmental-flow management, protected-area restrictions, and the need to package hydropower with transmission and institutional reform. For this wiki, the document is a backbone source for India — Energy Relationship with Nepal, Nepal–Bangladesh Electricity Trade Route, Nepal–India Electricity Transmission and Trade Project (NIETTP), and project-sequencing questions that depend on an official state planning frame rather than a single project promoter's view.

Contents

Section Page
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Objectives 1
1.3 Basic Approaches on IPSDP 2
2. IPSDP 3
2.1 Outline of IPSDP 3
2.2 Basic Understandings of the Development in Power Sector 3
2.2.1 Organizational Structure of the Power Sector 3
2.2.2 Involvement of Existing and On-going Power Development Plans in the Power Sector 4
2.2.3 Hydropower Development Plan 5
2.2.4 Power Trade 7
2.3 The Study for Development Scenarios 8
2.3.1 Direction of Development Scenarios 8
2.3.2 Setting of Development Scenarios 10
2.3.3 Analysis Results of Development Scenarios and Selection of Optimum Scenario 12
2.4 Formulation of Optimum Scenario 12
2.4.1 Power Demand Forecast 14
2.4.2 Power Generation Development Planning 15
2.4.3 The Power System Plan (PSP) and power trade with neighboring countries 18
2.4.4 Financial Analysis of IPSDP 22
2.4.5 Investment Plan 28
2.4.6 Strategic Environmental Assessment 31
3. Development Milestones and Future Outlook for IPSDP 34
3.1 Development Milestones and Pathways towards 2040 in IPSDP 34
3.2 Challenges of IPSDP 36
3.3 Required Transformations and Future Outlook for the Power Sector 37
3.4 Challenges and Recommendations for IPSDP 39

Key claims

  • Figure 3.1-1 on page 39 marks 2025 as the year when power exports surpass imports.
  • The same milestone ladder marks 2033 as the point when self-sufficiency in electricity supply is achieved.
  • The ladder marks 2035 as the year when the government's 28,000 MW development target is achieved.
  • The ladder marks 2040 as the stage when Nepal contributes clean export to the South Asian region.
  • The page-39 era buckets attach named projects to each window: Rasuwagadhi, Sanjen, Upper Modi A, Rahughat, Upper Trishuli 3B, Madhya Bhotekoshi, Upper Trishuli-1, and Arun 3 in the ~2025 block; Tanahu HEP, Tamor Storage, Madi Storage HEP, Manang Marsyangdi, Budhi Gandaki Ka, Bheri 4, Tila-1, and Tila-2 in 2026-2030; Lower Seti, Uttarganga STO, Phukot Karnali, Nalsyau Gad STO, Upper Arun, Chainpur Seti, Dudhkoshi STO, Sunkoshi 3 STO, Lower Badigad STO, Budhi Gandaki, Upper Marsyangdi-2, Dudh Koshi-IV, Upper Tamor, Bheri-2, West Seti STO, and SR-06 STO in 2031-2035; and Betan Karnali, Kimathanka Arun, Bharbung, Mugu Karnali STO, Tamakoshi 3, Khimti Shivalaya STO, Bajhang Upper Seti, Naumure STO, Upper Mugu Karnali, Bheri-1, and the Humla Karnali Cascade in 2036-2040.
  • Section 2.4 frames the wholesale-trade menu around NEA offtake, power-trading companies, and direct overseas trade to DISCOs/customers in India and Bangladesh, with the adjacent text on pages 24-26 adding grid-connection, market, and long-term cross-border PPA mechanics that sit behind those channels.
  • The SEA mitigation table on page 37 says hydropower planning must evaluate and manage environmental flows with reference to the IFC 2018 handbook, and it says projects in protected areas defined by Nepal's National Parks and Wildlife Conservation Act require prior permission and cannot assume river modification is automatically permissible.

Local source

Local workspace copy: moewri_ipsdp_exec_summary_2025.pdf

What this source does not cover

  • project-by-project construction progress after the study cutoff
  • plant-level monthly generation or trade data

Limitations

  • Planning document, not commitments. The milestone ladder (page 39) and project-era buckets represent MoEWRI/JICA planning targets — not COD-guaranteed projects. The 28 GW target and 2033 self-sufficiency date are aspirational government framing, not contracted timelines.
  • Executive summary scope. This is the 39-page executive summary, not the full IPSDP main report. Technical annexes, cost tables, and scenario sensitivity analyses live in the main report volumes (see JICA IPSDP Final Report Annexes (Vol. 2)).
  • Date discrepancy. Cover date is December 2024, but the local filename uses 2025. Citation precision depends on distinguishing the report cover date from the local filename.
  • Cutoff limitation. The study predates significant 2025 events (e.g., September 2024 flood damage to 600+ MW of capacity, post-flood recovery timelines, and any PPA or trade-agreement developments after the study cutoff).

See also